Oncor Capital
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Why we publish our thesis

NotesAkshay JainJul 21, 20262 min read

We are a small family office, we are newer to this side of the table than most of the people we meet, and our track record is three investments long. Publishing a thesis under those conditions feels slightly exposed. We do it anyway, for three reasons.

It is the only thing we can honestly be judged on yet

An established fund can point at a decade of outcomes. We cannot. What we can do is state, in advance and in public, what we think is true about semiconductors, deep tech, energy and AI — and then let anyone check, in a few years, whether we were right and whether we actually invested that way.

That is a weaker claim than a track record. It is also a much stronger claim than a website that says we back exceptional founders in transformative sectors, which is what a page like this usually says while committing to nothing.

It makes the no faster, and better

The most valuable thing we can give a founder we are not going to fund is a quick, specific answer. Slow passes cost founders weeks of runway. Vague passes cost them the chance to fix anything.

A published thesis does most of that work before the first email. A good share of the inbound that would have become a polite three-week silence now self-selects out, and what remains arrives already framed against the criteria. The passes we do write can point at a line — this is a wrapper, this is outside the four sectors, this is a services business — rather than retreating into "not a fit at this stage."

It sets expectations about what we are

We are not a fund with a platform team, a recruiting function or a communications department. If a founder signs up expecting that, we have failed before we started.

What we do have is capital that answers to nobody but us, a genuine tolerance for early technology risk, and a network — inside the industries we invest in, and across New Delhi's funds, family offices and institutional investors — that we open on day one rather than at the next round. Saying that plainly means nobody joins our cap table expecting something we cannot deliver.

The obvious cost

Publishing a thesis means publishing something to be wrong about, with our name on it. Some of what is on this site will look naive in three years.

That seems like the right trade. An investor who has never been publicly wrong is usually one who has never publicly committed to anything, and we would rather be the first kind.